Fergie Time?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-20464371

Interesting article on the BBC today about 'Fergie Time'. Quite poor reporting from the BBC really, it shows that United on average have more time added on when they're losing than any other of the big teams. However, that statistic is only for THIS season and doesn't include the other 14 teams in the Premier League or the other 26 matches to be played. It then goes on to say that over the course of the Premier League's 20 year history that United do not finish top every season but no actual facts are provided. It is quite poignant that it only focuses on the statistics that make United look bad but maybe that is the point of the article. After all, when it comes to football there is no such thing as a neutral.

Another statistic that is quite intriguing that it is actually Arsenal and Chelsea that have scored more 90th minute goals than anyone else, 84 apiece compared with 77 with that of United.

Team	Premier League goals	90th minute goals	%
SOURCE: OPTA SPORTS (PREMIER LEAGUE STARTED IN 1992)
Chelsea	1,306	84	6.43%
Arsenal	1,368	84	6.14%
Manchester City	796	41	5.15%
Tottenham Hotspur	1,092	56	5.13%
Liverpool	1,253	62	4.95%
Manchester United	1,570	77	4.90%

The most disappointing thing about the article is poor analysis of the issue. Statistics are meaningless without content, a broken clock is correct twice a day, it doesn't mean it is working correctly. The article doesn't dig deeper into why the bigger teams have more time added on when they're losing than when they're winning. I have seen many times at Old Trafford, teams from the bottom half leading going into the dying embers of a match. They often employ 'time-wasting' tactics such as taking 4 minutes to take a goal kick, making unnecessary substitutions to interrupt the flow of the game or players feigning injury. They wouldn't be doing any of this when they were losing so it is no surprise that more time is added for big teams when they're losing. Obviously this is not always the case, big teams employ these tactics too but the article barely scratched the surface as to why we have 'Fergie Time' and painted a very different picture.

The English Premier League Q1

Hello there everyone and welcome to my review of the first quarter of EPL. In my last post I touched upon the 3 way battle between Man City, Man United and Juventus for the mercurial striker Robin Van Persie. In the end it was United who won the race to sign the supremely talented Dutchman. This was an extremely poignant moment in the title race even at this early stage. Man United put down a marker here that they are still able to challenge Man City not just on the field but off it too. It came as quite a surprise that he signed for the Reds as Arsenal players have an excellent record in recent years in joining the current Premier League Champions, Adebayor, Toure, Clichy and Nasri to name but a few. So far he has been sensational for United scoring 11 goals in his first 14 appearences, including a hat-trick away to Southampton, a winning goal at Anfield and it took him just 2 minutes to score against his former club, Arsenal. While this is fantastic viewing for the Man United contingent, it must be painful for Arsenal fans to watch him be so effective especially as their current plight is looking rather bleak. The return of Jack Wilshire could be the catalyst for their recovery to title challengers rather than Champions League also-rans.

Premier League Table as it stands 05/11/12

1. Manchester United

A very patchy start from the current runners-up. Hugely hampered by the horrific list of injured defenders, Vidic, Smalling and Jones. However, their strikers have made up for the defensive shortcomings in spades. Thus far United have conceded first in 6 out of the first 11 premier league games plus 3 out of 4 champions league games yet they are top of both respective leagues. Firepower!

2. Chelsea

After another Summer of what Michel Platini calls 'financial doping', Chelsea look irrepressible at times this season with the holy trinity of Mata, Hazard and Oscar all in sensational form. With Juan Mata being particularly outstanding with 4 goals and 6 assists in just 9 appearances. The loss of Didier Drogba cannot be overlooked and Fernando Torres has in all honestly struggled to lead the line with the same gusto as the Ivorian. Not through lack of trying mind. Roberto Di Matteo must be congratulated on a thoroughly excellent job since he took over a sinking ship from AVB.

3. Man City

Manchester City seemed to have exercised some prudence when it comes to forays into the transfer market this Summer. With Roberto Mancini particularly aggrieved with the lack of activity. I think someone needs to explain some rudimentary maths to the enigmatic Italian. You cannot spend 107% of your income on players' wages alone and expect to comply with FFP (Financial Fair Play). By and large City have been fairly unimpressive so far, like United falling behind on numerous occasions but relying on the super-sub prowess of Edin Dzeko. 6 goals from 9 appearances so far, 6 as a substitute. This is the kind of player you need if you are going to win titles. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, Teddy Sheringham, Javier Hernandez.....

4. Everton

Everton have done fantastically well this season and no prizes for guessing their stand out performer, Marouane Fellaini. The Belgian is a huge handful, as Manchester United found out to their cost on the opening day of the season. Surely a big money move in January is on the cards, no disrespect to Everton but they can only match the striker's ambitions for so long. Obviously it has not been all about 1 man, their success has been built on a bedrock of solid defending with the England contingent of Leighton Baines and Phil Jagielka in sparkling form.

5. West Brom

This season's surprise package. Fantastic job by Steve Clarke considering this is first attempt at being the No.1 rather than a No.2. A switch more commonly associated with failure rather than success. Just ask Brian Kidd or Steve McClaren. Much of their success can be attributed to their home form, winning 5 out of 6, including an extremely impressive 3 - 0 victory over Liverpool.

6. Tottenham

Interesting choice of manager in selecting Andre Villas-Boas to take over from Harry Redknapp. Something that still baffles the majority of observers. Again, they have been largely inconsistent. A fantastic win at Old Trafford one week followed by a toothless defeat at home to Wigan a few weeks later. Gareth Bale is without doubt world class and he is in a different league compared to the rest of his team. Similar to Marouane Fellaini, how long can they hold onto their talisman?

7. Arsenal

A sorry story for the Gunners, another Summer, another prolonged transfer saga involving their best player and captain. With the conclusion, Arsenal's benefactors coming out considerably richer. While United fans must have been delighted to sign arguably the best player in the Premier League, Arsenal fans must be tearing their hair out. In the last 7 years, the players Arsenal have sold have won a whopping 44 titles at other clubs between them. More trouble ahead I suspect with Theo Walcott stalling on a new contract, with him being eligible to talk to other clubs in January. Their form has been patchy at best with only 4 wins this season. They will struggle to fight off Tottenham and Everton for that 4th Champions' League place with United, City and Chelsea all looking far superior.

8. Fulham

Martin Jol showing he's still got it when it comes to managing in the Premier League. Similar to West Brom, their success has been built on good home form. However, to move onto the next step, their away form needs to be remedied. With only 1 win in 6, which is just not good enough.

9. West Ham

Decent start from the Championship play-off winners. Sam Allardyce knows how to be effective in the Premier League.

10. Newcastle

They were always going to struggle to replicate the success of last season. Expectation bears down on a club and it's only the best that can live up to it. They are clearly struggling to combine playing in both the Europa and Premier Leagues.

11. Swansea

Stunning start under Michael Laudrup but have fallen away in recent weeks. If they finish in this position they will have over-achieved.

12. Liverpool

Where to begin with Liverpool. Brendan Rodgers, an odd choice but bearing in mind the other candidate was Roberto Martinez, it was probably the correct appointment. His teams play football in the right way, pass, pass, pass. They often dominate teams but end up losing or in most cases drawing. 6 out of 11 so far. Their emphasis seems to be way too much on midfield with Liverpool only having one recognised 'out and out' striker in Luis Suarez. Without Suarez, Liverpool would only have 2 points and be bottom of the table. A problem that is not new to the Red half of Merseyside, Fernando Torres, Michael Owen for example. I expect them to be challenging for the Europa League places come the end of the season or Brendan will struggle to hold onto his job. The Americans have proven already that if you're not producing the results they want, you will be swiftly dispensed with, even if you are an Anfield legend. Just ask Kenny.

13. Wigan

Another Summer of transition for Wigan, losing their best players, Rodallega and Moses. Roberto Martinez has again done extremely well to keep his team off the bottom and would be very happy to finish 13th come the end of the season.

14. Norwich

The loss of Paul Lambert was always going to be a factor in Norwich's success, Chris Hughton is a very able successor but the Premier League is a very unforgiving place. I don't expect Norwich to be in this position come the end of the season. 14th or above and they will have over-achieved.

15. Stoke

Odd to see Stoke this far down, they have established themselves as a mid-table Premier League side with their own brand of 'Blood and Thunder' tactics. Their away form is a problem though, having failed to win unless they are on home soil. However, they have played Liverpool, Man United, Chelsea and Arsenal already this season so I expect them to adopt their customary 10th come the final whistle in May.

16. Sunderland

Under Martin O'Neill I do not expect them to be relegated. A solid mid-table finish.

17. Aston Villa

The team is somewhat unrecognisable to the one the McRelegator left to Paul Lambert. The results have been the same though and the performances nothing to write home about. Even Villa fans have lost interest. Too good to go down but a very dull season of self preservation in the offing.

18. Reading

A Championship side with a Championship manager, will do well to stay in the division.

19. QPR

Hugely underachieving. A vast array of established Premier League talent but yet to win a single match. That comes down to the manager, Hughes could be the first managerial casualty of the season.

20. Southampton

This season's Blackpool, great going forward, woeful at the back. They need a miracle to survive and I haven't seen anything from Nigel Adkins that indicates he can turn it around. Only a matter of time before Nicola Cortese lets the axe fall on the amiable Adkins.

Close Season Report

After the most astonishing end to a top flight season since Arsenal famously wrestled the title from Liverpool in 1989, we had a fairly average Euro 2012 Championship. Spain as expected passed and passed and passed and passed in an incredible demolition of the Italians. Take nothing away from the Spanish, they are without doubt currently the best team in World Football but it doesn't really excite a crowd when only one team has the ball. This is why the Premiership sells so well around the globe, teams just attack! Regularly conceding possession, which is a sin in International Football but this is what makes the game so attractive. It saddens me a little to see Spain showing the world that how to win is to play without a striker but that's just me. 

As far as England are concerned, Hodgeson has made us into a laughing stock by persevering with 4-4-2. I felt sorry for Steven Gerrard (something I find incredibly hard feeling let alone admitting) and Scott Parker. They ran their hearts out but it was all in vain as often the opposition outnumbered them 4 to 2. Of course we exited on penalties, it's all in the mind, the weight of History that bored down on their shoulders was always going to be too much. The Germans in their entire history of International Finals have missed 1 solitary opportunity, mentality is key. It's just a shame that captain, hero, legend, John Terry didn't miss another one. Of course the usual vitriol followed, vilifying the United players. Apparently Ashley Young's miss was worse than Ashley Cole's? They both missed, fact! And it was Rooney's fault for missing that over-head kick, he was not up for it and couldn't be bothered. He would have scored that for Man United.......apparently. 'United players lost us the Championships', pathetic. People choose to forget that Rooney and Welbeck were the only England players to score winning goals in the entire tournament. With regard to the rest, the Germans caught the eye and were unlucky to come up against a Mario Balotelli inspired Italy that simply outplayed them. The World Cup finalists, the Dutch, lost every match. Abysmal performance from a team more concerned about their Ferraris and Oil of Olay daily skin routine.

So after the disappointment of losing the title to the Abu-Dhabi Black Gold on goal difference, a Summer of re-building must be on the cards for Sir Alex's men. United have already made the most important signing of the Summer, Nemanja Vidic. Considering he is the captain and United's record with him in the side compared to out of the side is remarkable. Is it unfeasible to think that United wouldn't have got just one more point if Vidic had been fit all season? The Everton game, oh the anguish. If Kompany was missing for the same period, what effect would that have had? What difference would Tevez have made if he hadn't thrown a childish tantrum? Less likely that it would have been positive. Kompany was sensational for City as was Sergio Aguero, Joe Hart and Yaya Toure. The spine of the team is very strong and that will give them an excellent platform to build on in the coming season. However, it looks like the FFP is actually taking effect. We have been accustomed to City blowing the competition away with regard to transfer activity but it has not been the case this Summer. Now it is the turn of Paris St-Germain with the Quatari backed project of inflating the cost of football as much as they can for players to profit. 

City are now in a 3 way bidding war with their bitter rivals and Juventus to sign the mercurial striker Robin Van Persie, who has declared he wants to leave Arsenal. A devastating finisher but at 28, how many years does he have left at his peak? 4 maybe 5 years at best. Seems to go against the policy of buying excellent prospects aged 18-23 that Sir Alex has championed over the last few years. Although I have to admit I would love to see him paired with Rooney at Old Trafford. I think it would win United the league even if they didn't strengthen in the area that is crying out for reinforcement, midfield. The signing of Shinji Kagawa is an astute one, not only does he have an excellent scoring and assist record (for a wide player), he will sell shirts in the lucrative far east market. Luckily he's been given the number '26' shirt, doubling the cost to have it printed on replica shirts, coincidence? Nick Powell is an interesting one, at 18 starring for Crewe in the League 1 playoff final is all well and good but if you compare that to Rooney. He was starring for England at Euro 2004 at 17. Maybe that is a bit unfair as players mature at different rates and I'd be delighted if he came good for United this season but that's a very big 'if' at the current moment. Lucas Moura is someone I caught a glimpse of against team GB for Brazil last night. He looks excellent and if his signature is secured along with Van Persie then United will certainly be in the reckoning again when the trophies are handed out in May next year.

One of my blogs cannot go by without mentioning Manchester United's malodorous owners, the double Glazers. They're at it again, this time their (I have to admit, exceptionally clever) financial engineering encompasses an IPO (Initial Public Offering). In the IPO prospectus, the Glazers lay bear their plans to use other people's money (mainly fans) to pay off THEIR debt. Is this what they actually plan to do or is this more smoke and mirrors? From reading other very accomplished blogs on the subject such as 'Andersred' and the 'Swiss Ramble', it seems that the Glazers' hand has been forced. Remember the mysterious PIKs (Payment In Kind loans) that just disappeared in November 2010. All of a sudden the Glazers paid off circa 300 milliion with no explanation whatsoever. As all their other businesses didn't have that kind of capital just 'lying' around then it was widely 'speculated' that the Glazers simply took out another loan and because this was a private loan had no obligation to make this information public. It was hidden away in Delaware, where United's parent company 'Red Football Ltd' is now registered. Delaware in case you didn't know is the most financially secret State in the world. No surprise the Glazers chose this location. Now the Glazers have dramatically changed their attitude and now talk about paying off the debt in order for United to remain competitive. 'Indebtedness' was mentioned 32 times in the IPO prospectus, speaks volumes. Theories abound regarding the PIKs, one is that the interest rate on the new PIKs is due to sky rocket in the near future. This is unless payments are made of course, hence the IPO that allows the Glazers to pay some or all of PIKs 2 off but still remaining in complete control. Unfortunately the only way the Glazers will sell is when they receive an offer in the region £2 billion for the club, don't you just love corporate greed, and that is some way off with Forbes recently valuing Manchester United at £1.44 billion. 

The only other way to get rid of the vermin is for Fergie to leave, the team to be unsuccessful and the plastic fans to leave in their droves. This would really test the 'glory' supporter tag, Liverpool still have full houses even with an 8th place finish and no top flight title for over 20 years so it is no guarantee that supporters would dessert the club. I am not keen on seeing United fall from grace just to prove to ABUs (Anyone But United) that all United fans are not 'glory' supporters. Roll on the transfer window roller-coaster, hyped up by Sky Sports News, and the new Premier League season. Abu-Dhabi Dirhams at the ready.....

Manchester is blue?

As promised in my last blog, some 5 months ago (Wow, so lazy!) I will now cover the following topics. Barcelona, the greatest team ever? United's spending? The Europa League? Rooney's International ban reduced? I am going to leave the Europa League and Rooney's ban reduction as quite frankly my interest in these issues has waned to almost non-existent.

Barcelona, while playing the best football on the planet are set to end an historic season without their 2 most coveted of possessions, La Liga and the Champions' League. Historic due to the astronomical amount of goals the majestic Messi has plundered in the 2011-12 campaign, currently a colossal 72. He has become only the second player to pass 70 goals in a first division season (currently 50 in La Liga alone, another record), the other being the legendary Archie Stark of the acclaimed Bethlehem Steel in the American Soccer League in 1924-25. The latter I think we can all agree can be discounted. However, Messi's accomplishments have not been enough to keep Jose Mourinho's slippery paws off the La Liga title. This in part due to the sterling endeavours of Cristiano Ronaldo, who has scored an incredible 45 goals, this in itself would be another record in any other season. While Ronaldo has been backed up by Gonzalo Higuain and Karim Benzema, both contributing 22 and 20 goals respectively, Messi has missed serial goalscorer David Villa to share the burden. His season-ending injury in the Club World Championship in December 2011 has proved to be a pivotal moment in Barcelona's season. Aside from Messi, Barcelona do not have another player registered on the top 10 goalscorers chart. From what I have seen, Alexis Sanchez looks a special talent but hasn't successfully filled David Villa's capacious boots, contributing only a meagre 11. In Europe, Barca have been supreme until they came up against a blue ten man wall in the form of Roman Abramovich's lavishly assembled Chelski. Even the previously immortal Lionel Messi missed a penalty, when things like that happen you know it's going to be your night. Amazingly they seemed to run out of ideas against Chelsea, never really creating a clear opening and then the unthinkable happened, Fernando Torres marauded upfield with no Barcelona player in sight and cooly rounded Valdez and thus putting the tie beyond doubt. Gary Neville's goalgasm being the highlight of that move. Despite of their shortcomings, I still feel Barca are the best club side on the planet. Although with Pep Guardiola deciding to call it a day, the jury's out on whether they can return to their former glories of 2011, where they comprehensively beat a Manchester United side bereft of ideas of how to combat what has been dubbed the 'carousel'.

This is a nice segue to United's spending. The 2011 Champions' League final was one of the most difficult to watch in recent memory (for myself and many other United fans I imagine), Carrick and Giggs again got the runaround from the holy trinity of Xavi, Iniesta and Messi. United hadn't improved or learnt any lessons of 2009, in fact they had regressed. Selling Ronaldo and not replacing him has relegated them to a second tier European side, it is down to the genius of Fergie that they even reached the final. For clarification I class Barca, Real and Bayern as top tier teams. European teams aside, I am going to look at the Net Spending of England's top Premier League teams over the majority of the lifetime of the Glazers' ownership of Manchester United. I have purposely left FC out of that title as they ceased to be that entity thanks to Peter Kenyon in 1997 but that's another issue. Manchester United's Net Spend between 2006 and 2011 amounts to £51m, some way short of the £250m promised pre-takeover. Add £500m going out of the club due to Interest Payments/Bond Buybacks, which benefit Manchester United in no way whatsoever, that have been funded in the large part by season-on-season ticket increases i.e. the fans. Now you can start to see why there have been movements such as 'Green and Gold'. £51m Net Spend is actually the 8th highest in the Premier League, obviously Man City coming top with £418m. The next challenger to Man City is Chelsea with a Net Spend of £155m. United are actually behind Liverpool, Sunderland, Aston Villa, Tottenham and even Stoke City when it comes to Net Spend in the last 5 years. I might add that this is somewhat skewed by the £80m sale of Ronaldo but even without that money (£131m), United would still be some way behind Chelsea and Man City. But United would still have the 145 goals in 143 games hitman. What is even more alarming is that United's Net Spend is even less than Hull and Burnley's in the last 3 years. However, as long as Fergie is in charge, United will continue to be competitive and attendances will still be high. I think it was a fantasy of mine to see mass boycotts, judging by the people around me at games this season I do not see any change in stance but I certainly won't be renewing. 

As for this season, it is looking like we will see a Premier League title being decided by Goal Difference for the first time in it's 20 year history. The advantage is currently plus 8 in Man City's favour, that swing of 10 in the second Manchester derby of the season is now looking to be decisive. Had Man Utd shut up shop and that game ended 2-1 or even 3-1, the gap would be non-existant or just 2. Fine margins indeed, losing at home to Blackburn and conceding 2 late goals to draw with Everton are now looking to be the key moments in the title race for United. It is interesting to note that United have been defeated 5 times at home in all competitions this season, all 5 coming without the presence of Nemanja Vidic and Michael Carrick. Although Carrick did play in the defeat to Blackburn but it was at centre half with Rafael and Park acting as the shield in front of the makeshift back four. Carrick has his detractors as he doesn't score enough goals and can go missing in big games but his value is vastly under-estimated in screening the defence. The last Manchester derby of the season produced a disappointing display for the reds but considering how much praise has been lavished upon Man City, they only won 1-0, scored from a set piece and De Gea only had one other save to make. So it was not as one sided as the ABUs love to depict. Granted 0 shots on target is unacceptable, United played for the draw and it back-fired. That is 2 wins apiece for the Manchester clubs this season and currently locked on level points. Where has it gone wrong for United this season, losing the captain Vidic has been hugely detrimental, losing the big-game player in Fletcher, Cleverly being injured most of the season, the worst injury crisis in Fergie's tenure in December and bedding in a new young goalkeeper as well as other youngsters have all contributed to United's downfall so to still be in with a shout is an over-achievement. While I have heard many times that Manchester is blue, facts tend to prove the opposite. So lets set the record straight once and for all, Manchester United have had a higher average attendance than Manchester City EVERY season since 1947, this included 3 seasons when United played at City's own ground due to Old Trafford being bombed in the war.